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redfish
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« on: September 13, 2011, 07:20:26 pm »

I'm an utter weather geek. I make all my own forecasts and I'm right just as often if not more often than the pros. What I haven't figured out yet is why there is never a weather thread in any of the forums I am a member of (except, of course, the weather forums). So, I'm making one here.

This thread is for weather forecasts, discussions, and mostly wishcasting. In weather forums, if you can't provide reasonable evidence behind a forecast, it's called wishcasting and you get in trouble. Here, there aren't any rules about that. So if you want to rant about how certain you are that you will receive thirty feet of snow on Christmas Eve, then go ahead. That being said, if you don't provide any sources nobody will take you seriously.

Why the hell would a bunch of kids care about weather, you might ask? Well, our lives revolve around weather. For example, most of us would kill for snow days. Those of us who wouldn't would probably kill snow days if they could. Wintertime is fast approaching, and that means that snow day season is almost upon us. This thread is also the place for anything else weather related- here you can talk about how much you hate cold weather, or how much you hate hot weather; you can talk about the recent tornado outbreaks, and about how tornadoes form; here you can talk about hurricanes, and make forecasts for hurricanes, learn a little about how they form and strengthen. If it has to do with weather, post it here.

A word of advice, however: climate change is a sensitive topic, and I do not recommend bringing it up. Also, I wonder if there is some way to differentiate serious forecasts from wishful ones.... maybe a different title emote?



I'm going to get this ball rolling with some forecasts. First off, there's a cold airmass expected to be moving into the NorthEast later on this week. That might be a first frost for some of us. Additionally, the GFS (the long-range American computer model that's screwy but free) has been showing an even larger cold airmass that might even give some of us a dusting of snow around the end of the month. Computer models are famous for being extremely unrealistic in the long range, however.

As far as this winter goes, I predict an unusually active winter for the North-East. Something like last winter. There's another Nina, -NAO, -EPO, and a -QBO. That's a pretty similar setup, with perhaps less coastal storms... I think. Anyways, for all of you who can't wait for the first snow day, like me, we shouldn't have to wait very long.

Oh, and one other thing. If you don't know what something means, just ask. A lot of these terms are probably foreign to you.
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Lein
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« Reply #1 on: September 13, 2011, 07:40:02 pm »

try predicting the weather in Michigan.....bach it's terrible.  Lays off everyone of the Zomb wars I go to.
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« Reply #2 on: September 13, 2011, 07:41:58 pm »

You are very smart....

I can't wait for a snow day. Ohio gets snow pretty bad...
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« Reply #3 on: September 13, 2011, 07:45:38 pm »

Michigan's weather is worse.  I hate you great lakes yet....I love you because of the beach babes.
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« Reply #4 on: September 13, 2011, 07:47:44 pm »

You are very smart....

I can't wait for a snow day. Ohio gets snow pretty bad...

I go by the opposite of what my radio station says...

You are a very smart person. I could never figure out the weather.
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« Reply #5 on: September 13, 2011, 07:52:11 pm »

You are very smart....

I can't wait for a snow day. Ohio gets snow pretty bad...

I go by the opposite of what my radio station says...

You are a very smart person. I could never figure out the weather.

It fried my brain the first time I read it through.
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« Reply #6 on: September 13, 2011, 07:55:10 pm »

You are very smart....

I can't wait for a snow day. Ohio gets snow pretty bad...

I go by the opposite of what my radio station says...

You are a very smart person. I could never figure out the weather.

It fried my brain the first time I read it through.

I never finished it... TO much reading...
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« Reply #7 on: September 13, 2011, 07:58:55 pm »

I skimmed through the whole article, hoping he would say he would do the weather for us here for free so I don't have to check every hour (or minute considering it's Michigan) the weather channel.
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« Reply #8 on: September 13, 2011, 08:02:30 pm »

I skimmed through the whole article, hoping he would say he would do the weather for us here for free so I don't have to check every hour (or minute considering it's Michigan) the weather channel.
Don't like the weather? Just wait 5 minutes....

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« Reply #9 on: September 13, 2011, 08:06:56 pm »

Exactamundo although the snow days last about a day and at one point school was like this.
Monday-normal, Tuesday-normal, Wednesday-snow day, Thursday-snow day, Friday-half day and than winter break.
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« Reply #10 on: September 13, 2011, 08:10:17 pm »

Exactamundo although the snow days last about a day and at one point school was like this.
Monday-normal, Tuesday-normal, Wednesday-snow day, Thursday-snow day, Friday-half day and than winter break.
Yup, one time it went like this for me:

Monday - off

Tuesday - Off

Wednesday (last day until break) - School
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« Reply #11 on: September 13, 2011, 08:24:26 pm »

Haha I moved here a year ago and my first winter (last winter) we got a ton of snow. It was epic. School went like this in January:
Three-day weekend; one day of school; two snow days; one day of school; weekend+1 snow day; two days of midterms; snow day; 1 day of midterms; long weekend; snow day; and so forth. It was epic.

Apparently, the year before we got no snow. So I was really lucky.

Here's to another winter of epic proportions  Grin
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« Reply #12 on: September 14, 2011, 09:59:38 pm »

In Hotlanta last year we had a week off of school for the snow, it was crazy! Also, cold.
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« Reply #13 on: September 15, 2011, 03:03:54 pm »

We live in a place in MI... Now this is weird, and my mom is big on gardening, so it drives her nuts. There can be a giant storm coming, and sometimes, it will do, (As she likes to call it.) the "Red sea effect." It parts and we will get hardly anything. Also, in 2 days, we got 4 feet of snow. They say we get 160 inches of snow here.... BUUUUUUULLLLLLLLL CRRRRAAAAAAP! We have to have at least over 340'.

try predicting the weather in Michigan...

Your absolutely right!

Michigan's weather is worse.  I hate you great lakes yet.


What are you talking about! Winters in MI rock! Snowmobiling, skiing, and a whole bunch of stuff... I'm getting exited just thinking about it!

In Hotlanta last year we had a week off of school for the snow, it was crazy! Also, cold.

Well, I might as well say it. When I look at the weather channel and it says "MASSIVE SNOW STORM HITS ATLANTA! UP TO 1 inch in some areas." It drives me bonkers! Sorry, no offense to you... OFFENSE TO THE WEATHER CHANNEL!

Here's to another winter of epic proportions  Grin

Awesome, what state?

It fried my brain the first time I read it through.

Haha, yeah... OK that had to be something from some kind of Harvard speech. Grin
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« Reply #14 on: September 15, 2011, 04:40:03 pm »

We live in a place in MI... Now this is weird, and my mom is big on gardening, so it drives her nuts. There can be a giant storm coming, and sometimes, it will do, (As she likes to call it.) the "Red sea effect." It parts and we will get hardly anything. Also, in 2 days, we got 4 feet of snow. They say we get 160 inches of snow here.... BUUUUUUULLLLLLLLL CRRRRAAAAAAP! We have to have at least over 340'.

Well, I might as well say it. When I look at the weather channel and it says "MASSIVE SNOW STORM HITS ATLANTA! UP TO 1 inch in some areas." It drives me bonkers! Sorry, no offense to you... OFFENSE TO THE WEATHER CHANNEL!

Here's to another winter of epic proportions  Grin

Awesome, what state?


I know what you mean by the storms splitting up around you... all summer long, the storms would split up around me. Even during the Springfield tornado outbreak, we got no precipitation at all- watching the radar, every single line would split up and re-form around me. There were funnel clouds 20 miles to our north, west, and south, but we got nothing. Drove me nuts!

You have to keep in mind with the southern states that they are not prepared to deal with the snow. I have friends in Dallas, TX who were stranded for a week after that storm gave them 1-2 inches of snow and ice. They had to wait for it to melt, because no one had plows, shovels, salt or even sand. They couldn't even get any from farther North because all the roads were shut down- the city was in lockdown mode for a week. In San Antonio, where I used to live, we had an ice storm one year that gave us maybe 1/8" of ice but resulted in two days of school closure.
In other words, the only thing Southern areas can do in preparation for a winter storm is to take down the signs that say "hell freezes before bridge" and replace them with "bridge freezes before road".

At the moment, if you live on the East Coast and are farther north than Raleigh, it looks like it's gonna be an above-average year. It's possible that this winter may top last year's. You guys near the Great Lakes always get snow, so don't even bother asking. :p
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